Whom and what should we believe?

Neil deGrasse Tyson

One of the great challenges in this world is knowing enough about a subject to think you're right, but not enough about the subject to know you're wrong.

Bertrand Russell

1.  When the experts are agreed, the opposite opinion cannot be held to be certain.

2.  When they are not agreed, no opinion can be regarded as certain by a non-expert.

3.  When they all hold that no sufficient grounds for a positive opinion exist, the ordinary man would do well to suspend his judgment.

Introduction

The whole notion of expertise, facts and truths, is under sustained, unprincipled attack.

As a result, many people have been rendered incapable of distinguishing fact from propaganda. The results have been tragic, and will continue to be tragic.

This post will lay out the bases of correct thinking in a complex world. The foundations of sound reasoning is not all that hard.

If you don't believe experts, then whom do you believe?

Let's be clear. Your family, friends, pastor, spouse are not typically experts on anything.

Why is this so difficult to understand?


If you don't believe in facts, then what do you believe?

What you read on twitter or facebook doesn't count as any kind of evidence.

Furthermore, the attack on evidence and facts is, almost without exception, completely disingenuous.

Admit it, we all act as if we do know that, for example, the distance from New York to Los Angeles is more than 20 miles :-)


If facts do exist, and people spend their entire working lives discovering those facts, then on what basis are we free to disagree with those experts?